我们来了
每次为错过风口懊悔，我都劝自己想想拼多多_我的网站
一 | 一直到现在，当大家讨论“大厂会不会轻松捏死同赛道的创业团队”时，拼多多都是那个被拿出来当做反例的公司。一个2015年才成立的创业公司，居然能在短短三年内，从电商大厂的缝隙间生长成新的巨头，情节实在跌宕起伏。 但到今年，拼多多似乎没有太多新故事在讲。 During the two-day visit, the American head of state will meet with Israel's top officials. These will include the new prime minister, Yair Lapid, alternate PM Naftali Bennett, as well as opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. He is also set to visit an Iron Dome missile defense base, a system developed jointly by the US and Israel.,The main focus of the US president’s upcoming trip will be a stop in Saudi Arabia, Danny Ayalon, Israel's former ambassador to the US, believes,"In the upcoming trip, the focus will be on Jeddah. Of course, the Saudis will not normalize relations with Israel but cooperation will be on the table.",Riyadh has repeatedly said that a normalization pact with Israel is not possible unless the Palestinian issue is resolved. Israel, which has just entered a transitional period ahead of the November midterm elections is not in a position to offer concessions, apart from symbolic gestures such as granting more work permits to Gazans or allowing crowds to pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.,But what Israel can offer to the Saudis, Ayalon says, is a solution to an issue that has been bothering them for years – control over the Tiran and Sanafir Islands in the Red Sea.,The two islands were under Saudi jurisdiction until 1950, when Riyadh transferred them to Egypt. Israel captured them during the Six Day War, but later returned them to Cairo as part of the 1979 bilateral peace treaty.,Egypt has been in control of the islands since then, but in 2016 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi promised to give them back to the Saudis. However, for that to happen, he needs the consent of the Israelis, due to the terms of the 1979 agreement.,Back then, Israeli consent was not given. Now, however, it seems to be on the table, Ayalon says. He stresses that Israel may use the issue as a bargaining chip in talks on the opening of Saudi airspace for Israeli planes or on defense cooperation. The latter is crucial for Riyadh, he says, especially in light of the threat emanating from Yemen's Houthi rebels, linked to Iran.,"Of course, the Saudis will continue with their lip service to the Palestinians, but cooperation will be taking place under the radar. However, the scope of that cooperation will not be big", the former diplomat says. "There is a generation gap between the Saudi king and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and unless there is a shift, nothing will move towards the formalization of ties," he added.,Palestinian Issue,Before Biden came to power, he vowed to support the two-state solution, resume funding for the Palestinians that was halted under his predecessor, and open the American Consulate in East Jerusalem to counter balance their embassy in the western part of the disputed city.,More than a year after his inauguration, many of the issues he had promised to resolve are still up in the air.,The US Consulate hasn't been opened in East Jerusalem yet, and doubts run high as to whether it ever will. The Palestinian Liberation Organization's office in Washington that was shut under President Donald Trump is still closed. Funds that were given to the Palestinians in the past have not been fully restored.,The Palestinians have repeatedly stressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of progress on their front, and Ayalon says the arrival of Biden is aimed at calming the mood.,"There won't be any breakthrough on the Palestinian front. But Biden does want to take some credit for the economic assistance to the Palestinians, and he does want to bolster the security cooperation between Israel and the PA, sending a message to Hamas.",Iran Nuclear Deal,Although last week another round of talks between the US and Iran ended in a stalemate, Washington is still interested in pursuing that path.,If a deal is reached, the US would remove many of its sanctions from the Islamic Republic in exchange for the ability to supervise Tehran's nuclear program.,The deal taking shape is disturbing officials in Jerusalem and Riyadh, who claim that a nuclear Iran might threaten their security, allegations Tehran has repeatedly denied. Ayalon says Biden's visit will try to mitigate the damage. He will also try to "get the support of Israel for the deal". But the Jewish state is unlikely to be convinced, even under the leadership of the more liberal Yair Lapid.,Israel’s Prime Minister Claims Iran ‘Dangerously Close’ to Obtaining Nuclear Weapons12 June, 00:10 GMT,The Israeli PM is heading to Paris on Tuesday, where he will meet President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the deal with Iran and attempts by the Islamic Republic to remove its Revolutionary Guards from the list of terror organizations.,In September, he is also planning a trip to New York, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and raise the issue of Iran once again.,"Lapid is likely to tell Biden that Israel is not bound by this agreement, if it does happen. Israel will emphasize that it will have a free hand when it comes to Iran, and that also means that it can adhere to plan B," Ayalon said, referring to a military option.,Russia's Operation in Ukraine,However, Biden is not only going to Israel for the sake of regional issues, the former diplomat claims. His visit to Israel and Saudi Arabiacomes amid raging hostilities in Ukraine, and the US head of state will try to convince the two Middle Eastern nations to stand by the side of Washington, he adds.,Although Saudi Arabia cracked under the American pressure to pump more oil, prices on crude continue to climb, shaking the economies of the US and Europe.,Israel, on its part, has also taken a lukewarm approach vis-a-vis Ukraine. Although it has publicly denounced Russian actions, absorbed thousands of Ukrainian refugees, and provided thousands more with medical and humanitarian assistance, it has not joined sanctions against Russia. And Ayalon says his country is not planning to change its course.,"President Vladimir Putin has been friendly with Israel for all these years. Plus, we have a big Russian population in this country. So I doubt Israel will join the Western sanctions against Moscow. It is simply not in our interests," he concluded.。
二 | 同行者们忙着开疆扩土，要么去AI的浪潮里翻滚，要么在即时零售的战线里造浪，拼多多反而是不声不响的那个，守着自己成立之初就在做的电商业务，又过了一年生日。 过去，大家都在分析拼多多做了什么，为什么这么做。在这个看上去没什么新故事的一年，也许拼多多不做什么，为什么不做，也是同样有趣的命题。
三 | 令人头疼的“反例” 作为一家商业公司，拼多多一直是令人头疼的。不光令竞争对手头疼，也三不五时地要令投资者头疼。
四 | 例如，拼多多上市以来的股价单日最大跌幅出现在2024年8月26日，单日下跌28.51%，市值蒸发550亿美元。但实际上，当天发布的财报表现不算太差，营收和利润增速放缓本就在市场预期之内，真正带来大地震的是高管们在财报电话会上自己泼的“冷水”。 “从长远看，盈利能力下降是必然趋势。”“高收入增长不可持续，盈利能力下滑趋势已成定局。”“尽管未来几个季度利润可能波动甚至反弹，但长期盈利能力下降趋势不可避免。” 这些论断，言辞尖锐到像是外部分析者的唱衰，实则是高管们在财报电话会上的自我评价原文。
五 | 反常规的表达，让资本市场陷入悲观情绪，股价应声下跌。 一年多过后，投资者也已经习惯拼多多每个季度都会提醒大家“增速放缓是必然趋势”“接受短期利润下降”等等。回顾那次带来巨大风波的电话会，管理者也只是客观描述了平台在做的事情：会加大对生态系统的投资，投资周期很长，投资和利润周期是错配的。这些方向性的提示，在随后几个季度里落地成了“百亿减免”和“千亿扶持”等对买卖双方的补贴政策，并在2025年二季度逐步兑现效果。 资本市场热衷的风口，拼多多一个也不追。
六 | 远一点的，前些年大厂纷纷投入互联网金融赛道，人手若干张小额贷款和保险经济牌照，但除了与核心电商业务密切绑定的支付，拼多多看起来对互联网金融毫无兴趣。 近一点的，“拼多多杀入大模型”几乎在这两年成为一个狼来了的故事，每隔一段时间就会有人从招聘信息、内部传闻中嗅到蛛丝马迹，但一直到今天，拼多多从未在任何一次财报电话会中提及“大模型”一词。仅有的大模型人才招聘，也指向识别、搜索、推荐、对话等电商核心场景的应用，看起来完全没有要做AI领头羊的野心。 到今年夏天，本地市场打得火热，但已经不太有人关心“拼多多什么时候做外卖”了，因为大家都清楚，拼多多不会来的。即便未来哪天，社区团购赛道的多多买菜把次日达服务升级为当日达或1小时达，也不会有人认为那是拼多多在跟进外卖大战。毕竟在今年夏天，拼多多早早挂上了免战牌，官方宣称“无意加入即时零售大战”“不涉足外卖餐饮”，态度斩钉截铁，没有留任何暧昧的空间。 投资者和大厂对风口的追逐，除了明确的战略判断，也与FOMO（Fear of missing out）情绪密切相关。它不是一种可以被简单定义为正向或负向的情绪，而是基于向内生长还是向外生长的选择。如果互联网圈有FOMO情绪戒断小组，拼多多大概可以凭借过去几年回避风口的战绩当选组长了。 毫无疑问，拼多多是敢为天下“后”的，毕竟它有过后发制人的经验，或者说，敢为天下“后”本来就是它的成功方法论。那么在不追逐风口的这些年，拼多多的钱投资在了什么地方？ 一个反直觉的答案是物流。在我们认为物流已经发展完备的当下，“疏通”物流仍在拼多多的投资视角里具有很高的优先级。
七 | 对于电商业务来说，“能送到”不是物流建设的完成态，把成本降到足够低，让物流不成为交易的阻塞项才是。举例来看，在很长一段时间里，西藏、青海、新疆等西部省份消费者（尤其是西部省份的偏远县城和乡镇）的网购体验，要比江浙沪等东部地区差很多。不止运费高、不包邮、时效慢，还有很多店家考虑到运输成本和货损风险而选择不向这些地区发货。 拼多多最近两年重金投入的一个项目，是让西藏、青海、新疆等西部省份“快递进村”，方法也很简单，把原本已经接近衰落的乡村小卖部重新盘活，成为村里的快递代收点，让村民可以在步行范围内取到快递。类似方案在东部省份已经运行很多年了，但在偏远地区的乡村才刚刚起步。新疆伊犁州某快递进村业务负责人曾告诉刺猬公社，去年在项目推进初期，他们跑了400多个村子，有一些牧民村夏天没什么人住，他们就在村委会贴海报，等牧民从夏牧场回村再看。在推进快递进村项目的同时，拼多多把所有发往西部订单的转运费免掉，改由平台承担，让商家不再有物流成本上的顾虑。
八 | 拉长时间线之后，从实际效果看，快递进村不仅是一个“公益项目”，也是一笔成功的商业投入。基本达成伊犁快递村村通后，上述快递业务负责人曾透露，“县市一级快递站点的员工数量翻了一倍，每天从县里转运快递去乡镇的车辆从一台增加到了三台。”一位在新疆莎车县开设乡镇快递站点的站长告诉我们，村里很多看不懂汉字的老人也在完成“网购初体验”，一位50多岁的村民，去年花380块钱买了一台55寸的电视，淘汰掉了家里“像电脑那么大”的“大屁股电视”。 今年二季度财报发布时，拼多多曾对外透露“过去一年，西部地区的订单量同比增长超过4成”。在广袤的地域上，消费是有时差的，拼多多的投资战略表明，其对西部的消费增长空间仍充满信心。 从这些年的行动轨迹来看，拼多多屡次“回避”风口并非不要增量，而是选择了另一条向业务内部挖掘增量的道路。在大家都觉得已经成熟的市场，拼多多认为还有空间可挖，还有消费潜能没有释放，这是敢为天下“后”的特殊视角带来的非典型战略，也是拼多多作为一个商业样本在这些年格外值得观察的原因。 不讲故事，就是拼多多的故事 如果要在中国的互联网公司中，做一个最不爱讲故事排行榜，拼多多绝对可以排进前三名。与之相对应的另一个显著特征，是拼多多的高管团队极少在公开场合发言，想要探查他们的想法，每季度财报发布后的电话会几乎成为唯一途径。
九 | 2018年7月，拼多多在美国纳斯达克上市，截至当下，一共发布过29份季度财报，开过29次财报电话会。拼多多敢为天下“后”的基础到底是什么？刺猬公社将这29次财报电话会（包含问答环节）的实录整理成了一份近30万字的文档，试图从中读出这家公司掌舵者对自身业务的理解与眺望。
十 | 统计这份近30万字的发言实录可以发现，拼多多高管最常挂在嘴边的几个关键词是用户、消费者、商家、商品。其中，消费者共被提及708次，平均每次电话会被提及24.4次；商家共被提及627次，平均每次电话会被提及21.6次。
十一 | 数据统计&整理：刺猬公社 消费者和商家，是一家电商公司的绝对核心用户，近几年，拼多多投入的成本也主要花在了这两者身上。其中，“百亿补贴”已成为拼多多的重要标签，针对供需两端新生态建设的“千亿扶持计划”则把钱和资源流向不同体量的商家，包括中小品牌、农产品产区和产业带厂商。从辐射范围看，拼多多近两年的中小商家扶持计划，是把自己当年在激活下沉消费市场所走的路，在供给端又重走了一遍。 在众多品类中，农产品常常是谈论的焦点。
十二 | 农业（504次）、农产品（275次）、农民（164次）频繁出现在拼多多高管口中。 值得关注的是，早在2018年上市后的首次财报电话会上，拼多多就曾用大篇幅讲述自己对农产品市场的理解。
十三 | “农业领域是我们商业模式初见成效的典范，我们欣喜地看到为消费者和农民创造的价值。
十四 | ……尤其重要的是，平台数据能帮助中小农户根据用户需求调整品种选择、采收与包装标准。同时平台可快速为农户农产品聚合大宗订单，使他们无需依赖分销商，摆脱议价弱势困境。最终实现农民收入显著提升，平台消费者则能享用更实惠、更新鲜的产品。” 而随着物流（121次）网络的发展，拼多多得以彻底改变农产品的供需结构。2017年，中国330个国家级贫困县中约有48，000家商户通过拼多多销售农产品；到2020年底，通过拼多多销售农产品的农民数量超过1200万。到2025年，由平台主导的“多多好特产”计划则进一步下探到乡镇一级的数百个优质产区，将全国的地域性农产品纳入同一张销售网络。 翻看拼多多的商业发展史，也等同于翻看产地农户的线上销售史。 但倘若要客观地评价这两者之间的关系，拼多多并非制造了农民线上销售农产品的模式，而只是参与并加速了这一进程。真正驱动农民进行大规模线上销售的，是物流（121次）的发展、基础设施（81次）的完善、以及消费者（708次）普遍产生的新需求。移动互联网渗透到农村了，物流收取件村村通了，新农人（11次）们回到家乡创业了，这是过去几年发生的基本变化。同样的进程也发生在遍布全国的中小制造商（108次），以及由他们生产出来的种种商品之中。正是基于客观条件的成熟，作为平台的拼多多才有机会参与供应链变革的进程，从一度被视作瓜分完毕的电商市场重新突围。 在更宏观的视角看，从来没有一家公司能真正地改变时代，它们只是搭上了时代的快车，顺应了时代的需求，继而收获了时代的奖励。 长期（247次）则是另一个高频词，验证了拼多多高管对自己业绩的短期“泼冷水”并非表演。
十五 | 早在2018年，“唤醒低线城市长期沉寂的消费需求”就被拼多多视作自身的价值所在；到2019年，面对激烈的行业竞争，拼多多为了留住商家公开宣布“若能为长期增长铺路，不介意在短期内做出让步，例如降低抽成比例”；从2021年开始，高管们则开始在每次电话会上不厌其烦地谈论农业投资和供应链优化的长期属性，“运用技术赋能农业价值链各环节实属长期工程”“我们坚信这些举措终将推动商户生态系统长期更具韧性”。 回顾拼多多成立以来的官方表态，与商业有关的谜底也许就藏在谜面里。消费者和生产者站在两端，平台站在中间，抓住每一个环节提升效率的机会，再把效率兑换成收益。 不讲故事，就是拼多多的故事，它从成立以来用最复杂的方式做了最基本的生意。 这样的生意，从很早以前就开始了。
十六 | 在两千多年前，商人买卖的是竹、玉石、姜桂、丹砂，囿于运输条件，这些不易变质的商品是商人们的最佳选择；而到现在，平台卖的可以是全球任何一个地方生产出来的商品，买的人可能来自全球任何一个地方。
十七 | 当买卖的技术和地理限制被不断降低，商品生态和商业规模就能获得长期增长。 时移世易，商贾货殖的本质没有变过，“廉贾归富”依旧是对本本分分做好一门生意的奖赏。
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