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UNSC Expansion Would 'Certify Transition From US Unipolarism to Multipolarity': Scholar_我的网站

A | K图 TLM_0 　　股市行情震荡之际，资金正持续流入债券ETF。
　　数据显示，截至本周一，债券ETF已连续12个交易日吸金，8月以来的合计净流入238.27亿元。债券ETF规模也在8月首次突破9000亿元，本周一已创新高至9205.53亿元。 The UN General Assembly in New York is meeting Tuesday to discuss ways to make the Security Council more representative and equitable.,The meeting, convened by General Assembly President Abdulla Shahid in a letter dated July 7, is tasked with deliberating the “question of equitable representation and an increase in the membership of the Security Council and other matters related to the Security Council.” Sahid is expected to present a draft oral decision “following consultations” with General Assembly members.,A draft presented on the UN’s website reaffirms “the central role of the General Assembly concerning the question of equitable representation on and increase in the membership of the Security Council,” and expresses “the commitment of heads of state and government representing the peoples of the world to instill new life in the discussions on the reform of the Security Council.”,The draft proposes the continuation of “intergovernmental negotiations on Security Council reform” at the upcoming 77th General Assembly in September, including the creation of an “open-ended working group” to discuss the matter.,Background,Created as part of the United Nations after the end of the Second World War, the Security Council consists of the world’s five major nuclear powers (Russia, China, the United States, France, and Britain) and 10 rotating non-permanent members. Collectively, their main goal is the maintenance of international peace and security.,A key difference between the UN and its Security Council and the League of Nations – the defunct intergovernmental organization formed in the aftermath of the First World War, is the inclusion in the former of the right for each permanent member to veto substantive resolutions made by other members, such as accepting new members into the UN, or authorizing the use of force against another country.,The veto concept was a hard-fought victory of the Soviet delegation at the San Francisco conference on the UN’s formation. Moscow argued for the right of veto to prevent one or more major powers from ganging up on others to pursue national geopolitical, economic, or military interests at the expense of others using the UN platform to provide such actions with legitimacy.,The veto principle enabled the Security Council and the UN generally to the survive multiple international crises, both during the Cold War and in the three decades after 1991, and ensured that the UN did not collapse, as its League of Nations predecessor did, in times of crisis.,Putin on 75th Anniversary of WWII: Shared Responsibility to History and Future18 June 2020, 19:47 GMT,Why Reform Now?,The Security Council underwent two major reforms: in 1965, when the original non-permanent membership was increased from six to ten to account for the emergence of new countries in the Global South after the collapse of European colonial empires, and in 1971, when the US dropped its veto to allow the People’s Republic of China to take up its rightful seat at the Security Council, replacing Taiwan.,Discussions on reforming the Security Council began anew in the early 1990s, as the United States and its allies, convinced of their triumph and status as leaders of a new global order following the collapse of the USSR, began discussing the "end of history" and conceptualizing ways to make the 21st century an “American century.” On the other side of the debate, rising powers from the Third World began pushing to reform the UN to make it more representative of their interests.,In 2005, rising economic giants India and Brazil, as well as Germany and Japan, the defeated Axis powers, formed the so-called G4 group of nations to support one another’s push for permanent Security Council membership. In 2005, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan put forward a proposal to expand the council to 24 members, either by creating six new permanent members and three new non-permanent ones, or eight new non-permanent members of a new class of rotating members and one additional non-permanent seat. In 2017, the G4 announced their readiness to temporarily accept non-veto wielding status to become permanent Security Council members.,Opponents of reforming the Security Council have made arguments on the basis of perceived balance of power-related concerns, such as Pakistan opposing India’s permanent membership, or Spain and Italy opposing German membership, South Korea opposing Japanese membership, and major Latin American powers like Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia opposing Brazil’s membership. Other rising powers, such as Turkey, have argued in favor of the Security Council’s expansion to better represent Asian, Latin American, and African countries.,Moscow has paid a heavy price for its permanent membership in the Security Council, first through its central role in defeating Nazi Germany and Japan during the Second World War, and then in 1991, by taking upon itself the entirety of the USSR’s $66 billion perestroika-era debt after the country’s collapse. But Russia has also expressed support for reforming the body to better represent developing nations, particularly India and Brazil, as well as a candidate from Africa. At BRICS summits in 2021 and 2022, Russia and China reiterated their continued support for improving the BRICS’ status at the UN, including via a comprehensive reform of the Security Council.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,In recent months, these calls have grown louder, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in April that countries from the Global South would be an excellent way to curb the “unilateralism” of the West at the UN.,Last week, Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov reaffirmed Russia’s readiness to discuss the expansion of the Security Council to provide membership to India and Brazil, but not US allies Germany and Japan.,“Russia is calling for the expansion of the UN Security Council based on a broad consensus. It requires increasing the proportionate share of African, Asian and Latin American countries for the UN Security Council to be able to reflect the aspirations of people around the world and be a more democratic body,” Denisov said, speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4.,“At the same time, I would like to be frank – we aren’t ready to support the accession of actors such as Germany and Japan. We don’t see any added value from their potential accession. Given the current balance on the Council – or imbalance, I should say, the membership of the two aforementioned candidates is unlikely to strengthen it, rather it will make the imbalance even more striking,” the diplomat stressed.,An Idea Whose Time Has Come?,“It appears that all nations are aware that the UNSC must become more inclusive and representative of the reality of today’s world,” says Paolo Raffone, director of the CIPI Foundation, a Brussels-based think tank.,According to the observer, apart from the 1971 modification of the Council to reflect China taking over Taiwan’s seat, the UNSC of today still largely “reflects the world of 1945.”,“For many years the UNSC has been blocked by cross-veto proceedings, affecting stability and peace in the world. Unblocking the UNSC is the most urgent need for all nations wishing for the effectiveness of a rule-based international systems,” Raffone argues.,Raffone favors adding BRICS countries into the mix, pointing to their collective status representing “the largest share of world population, land and [purchasing power parity],” as well as “spectacular” economic growth over the past two decades. “Their inclusion in the UNSC would certainly strive to keep globalization alive under new rules and governance,” and reduce problems such as lack of democracy, poor geographical representation, and “lack of legitimacy for ensuring global governance” of the current body, he believes.,The observer emphasizes, however, that for any reform initiative to succeed, two-thirds of the UN’s member states would have vote for and ratify it, with every permanent member of the Security Council also needing to agree – no easy task to pull off.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to India5 July, 10:29 GMT,New Multipolar World Order,“The enlargement of the UN Security Council would formally certify, on the international level, the transition from US unipolarism to the new multipolar architecture. It would be an epochal event!” says Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends: International Institute for Global Analyses, an Italy-based international affairs think tank.,Graziani is convinced that the benefits from the body’s expansion would be multifold, including rebalancing power in international organizations “hitherto essentially ‘Westernist’” and “hegemonized” by the West. “Above all,” he says, “enlargement would be essential to ensure greater stability” in the “turbulent geopolitical and geo-economic transition” that the present moment represents.,The observer stresses that any reforms would need to be gradual to prevent an institutional crisis, but admits that “some reforms must be radical,” given the organization’s dominance by Western powers.,Like Raffone, Graziani supports the increased visibility of BRICS nations in the body, citing their outsized significance to global security and the economy and underrepresentation in this sense.,“At the moment we are in a particular situation: on the one hand there is the West led by the United States and the British which constitutes a conservative pole that aims to maintain a hegemonic role on a planetary level, on the other hand there is a set of nations (basically the BRICS countries) which demand a greater presence in global decisions. Within the framework of the UN, the contribution of the BRICS countries would be fundamental since it would guarantee a balance that has not been there so far,” Graziani believes.,The observer stresses that there simply is no alternative to the UN’s authority in international affairs, and that subsequently, “a new, more balanced (multipolar) international forum needs to be set up” in the present situation.。再次入金的背后，震荡走强的债市已经使得近七成的债券ETF的周一净值刷新峰值纪录，创新高的债基也不在少数。　　值得留意的是，基金管理人在债基的限购动作已有分化，部分债基近期加码限购，限购额甚至下调至10元。有机构人士认为，当前债市拥挤度已有所上升，追涨赔率正在明显下降。

B | 　　债券ETF再次吸金　　8月中旬以来，债券ETF的净流入出现明显放大，昨日单日，债券ETF净流入39.82亿元，上周则是出现单日净流入超40亿的情况。

C | 　　8月债券ETF“由负转正”吸金238亿，逼近5月高点（248.05亿元），较6月峰值（648.69亿元）仍有差距。　　信用债指数ETF吸金较多，8月以来净流入143.78亿元，主要由公司债ETF贡献；利率债指数ETF也净流入90.68亿元，主要是30年期国债ETF、10年期国债ETF贡献较多。　　单只产品来看，公司债ETF易方达吸金最多，净流入32.58亿，最新规模为326.3亿元，创成立以来新高；30年国债ETF博时也净流入32.34亿元，最新规模同样创新高至207.01亿元；净流入21.56亿元的十年国债ETF国泰，也创规模峰值（225.46亿元）。　　除了上述净流入居前ETF，规模创新高的还有5年地方债ETF鹏华，最新规模为77.48亿元，8月以来吸金8.45亿元。信用债ETF华夏、信用债ETF广发等8月以来净流入超过10亿元的债券ETF也迎来规模峰值。

D | 　　头部管理人旗下的债券ETF整体吸金力度较大，比如凭借着旗下公司债ETF和科创债ETF合计超45亿元的净流入额，易方达基金成为8月净流入最多的债券ETF管理人；海富通基金旗下的6只债券ETF也合计吸金25.57亿元。　　债基限购动作分化　　债券ETF的规模新高，既有资金持续净流入的助推，债市震荡走强的行情也进一步提升债券ETF的净值。数据显示，昨日37只债券ETF净值创成立以来新高，占债券ETF总数近七成。　　债基整体则有超过600只产品昨日创下净值新高。

E | 十年期国债期货主连合约也在近日触及109.65元的历史新高值，并进入震荡行情。　　不过，当前行情下，已有债基近期开始出现“闭门谢客”。比如，摩根基金（中国）今日公告称，旗下摩根瑞享纯债债券从今日起暂停10元以上的大额申购，这距离该基金恢复大额申购仅过去1个交易日。

F | 　　长城基金则宣布旗下长城裕利纯债恢复申购，但仍限制10万元以上的大额申购。　　上周，华泰柏瑞同业存单指数7天持有也宣布限购额由原本的1000万元，下调至10万元。兴业添利债券的限购额也是在上周由1000万元，下调至100万元。　　也有债基选择上调限购额，比如鹏华丰恒债券、鹏华金利债券的限购额由此前的100万元，上调至1000万元。国联安增盈债券的限购额也从此前的10万元，上调至5000万元。

G | 　　“基本面边际走弱、政策宽松预期升温以及资金面改善预期仍对债券市场形成支撑。

H | ”在鹏华基金经理张羊城看来，短期交易方向仍偏多，但随着10年期国债收益率下行至1.70%附近，部分宽松预期已经得到定价，收益率进一步下行需要更强的政策或基本面催化，追涨赔率较上半年明显下降。　　他还分析，从机构行为观察看，交易型机构久期已处于偏高水平，部分配置型机构前期配置进度较快，市场拥挤度有所上升，边际追涨力量可能减弱。“短期可维持适度偏多思路，关注宽松预期进一步发酵及资金中枢下行落地的交易机会，但不宜在低利率位置过度追涨；随着政策预期逐步兑现，应更加重视止盈和回撤控制。”　　长城基金也认为，对债市友好的大环境未发生根本变化。本周起国债发行节奏加快，月末资金面可能会面临一定扰动，债券收益率短期进一步下行的阻力有所增加，预计仍以低位震荡为主。（文章来源：财联社）。