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아시안게임에도 AI 실전 투입…SKT, AI 펜싱 분석 기술 첫 공개_我的网站

巨星秀

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With pressure mounting to avert a government shutdown, heightened by culture war demands from House conservatives burned by previous brawls, the House speaker faces a difficult decision – risk a shutdown or risk the gavel.

That was 2015. But 2023 is treading a similar course.

For former House Speaker John Boehner, it was the final chapter in a lengthy standoff with House conservatives that contributed to his resignation from Congress after 25 years and almost five in the top job. For current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, just seven months into his tenure, the outcome remains an open question.

With a looming deadline to fund the government and much left to be accomplished upon Congress’ return from recess, McCarthy and other congressional leaders expressed willingness earlier this month to pass a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded, buying lawmakers more time to work out the 12 appropriations bills they’ve been pursuing. But demands from the House Freedom Caucus have complicated the effort and put McCarthy in yet another bind from the right that analysts say could be the one to put his leadership position on the line.

“This is now the most important fight he faces as speaker and the choice between kind of the campaigning arm, the House Freedom Caucus arm, and the actual governing arm of keeping a government running,” says Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

McCarthy has walked a fine line with the conservatives since the speaker battle, when they took him 15 grueling rounds before granting him his win, and in turn gained the power to bring up a vote for his ouster, lowering the threshold to just a single lawmaker.

So when the House Freedom Caucus announced it would oppose a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded unless certain conservative provisions are includes – like addressing DOJ "weaponization" and ending "woke" Pentagon policies – it prompted a confrontation with McCarthy that’s been brewing and bubbling in fits and starts for months, ready to boil over.

Such legislation would lose support among House Democrats and face steep odds in the Democrat-controlled Senate, making a shutdown likely. But without the support of conservatives on a clean continuing resolution and only a few votes to spare in the GOP narrow majority, McCarthy will likely need to rely on Democrats to approve a stop-gap measure – a move sure to provoke the hard-liners in his caucus.

“This is where his choice comes in,” Burgat says. “If he takes Democratic support, which likely he'll need to do, then that opens himself up to at least a motion to vacate because it only takes one now.”

The contours of the standoff were previewed during the debate over the debt ceiling, as House conservatives demanded controversial spending cuts and policies that put McCarthy in a difficult negotiating position with Democrats and the White House. Ultimately, Democratic votes on the debt ceiling agreement outnumbered Republicans in the House in a turn of events that infuriated some members of the House Freedom Caucus.

That same small but vocal minority – numbering in the mid-30s out of 222 Republicans in the chamber, though the caucus doesn’t publicize the exact number – made their frustration known just days later, when they blocked a routine vote, sending the chamber into a week-long gridlock. At the chamber’s reunification, McCarthy told reporters they had agreed to “sit down and talk more” in future spending negotiations. And shortly after, Republican appropriators agreed to mark up the 12 spending bills well below the levels agreed to in the debt ceiling deal in what appeared to be a major concession made to the House Freedom Caucus that has colored the funding process so far.

But this time, emboldened by the shortcomings in the last fiscal battle, they may come out with a greater show of force, as McCarthy faces what political science professor Rob Mellen Jr. calls a “no win situation.”

“I think this might be the fight they're willing to go to the mat for,” says Mellen, of the University of South Florida. “That this time if he really doesn't feel like he's going to compromise with them and give them what they want, that they may be willing to just say, ‘Hey, we'll shut this down. We'll go that direction, and we'll remove you if you go to the Democrats.’”

Members of the Freedom Caucus have for months suggested that they would be willing to let the government shut down if they don’t agree with the funding package. Indeed, for the conservatives, who largely hail from safe districts, there isn’t much to lose, as analysts note that if the government shuts down and Republicans are blamed, the conservatives won’t be on the chopping block like their colleagues in swing districts.

But some have noted that for the Freedom Caucus, perhaps armed with the understanding that their demands have little chance of becoming reality, the ultimate goal may be McCarthy’s removal after all.

“It just puts McCarthy in this bind and sort of forces his hand almost to do what he did before, which is get the government funded with Democratic votes, and in so doing, they can respond by triggering a call for his removal,” says David C. Barker, professor of government and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. “And I think that's what they're agitating toward. That's what they want. That's kind of what they wanted from the beginning. And they've been looking for a mechanism to do it. And I think maybe all along they've planned on this being the one.”

True to form, Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas didn’t mince words about McCarthy’s dilemma with the Freedom Caucus last week, calling a motion to oust McCarthy “inevitable” if he continues to rely on Democrats.

“McCarthy’s going to have to listen to the people on the right or else he’s going to have to rely on the Democrats to pass this,” Jackson said on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “But I’m telling you if that happens, I mean, it’s going to be detrimental to leadership in the House if they blow off the concerns of the people like myself and Freedom Caucus and some of the other people on the right that are making reasonable demands in this process – it’s going to be a problem.”

Whether McCarthy can rely on Democrats to back a CR is one thing. But whether they’ll protect his gavel is another matter altogether.

Some dynamics suggest at least some Democrats would come to his aid, like reports of a coalition of Democrats offering McCarthy a deal during the debt ceiling fight that they would help him keep his job should he responsibly raise the debt ceiling. Another calculation for Democrats is McCarthy’s possible replacement, who likely wouldn’t align more closely with their positions, making McCarthy’s retention arguably in Democrats' best interest.

But even if McCarthy survives a motion for his ouster with the help of Democrats or calls conservatives’ bluff and his speakership isn’t ultimately threatened, analysts say his hold on the conference will remain shaky and his ability to get things done stunted.

“He can only afford to lose four. And if there's 40 that are just mad at him all the time, then they're going to be reluctant to support him even if it's on things that they want to,” Burgat says. “They've proven willing to shut down the chamber even when it's run by their own party. And so, as much as he'll defang them on this one vote, he'll need them again for any Republican priorities to be passed out of the House heading into an election year.”

It’s a dynamic that haunted Boehner for years and ultimately contributed to his early departure. And the House Freedom Caucus has only grown bigger and more brash, releasing statements and listing demands publicly, while McCarthy’s margin is just a fraction of what the former speaker’s was in 2015.

“McCarthy is closer to being one of them than Boehner ever was,” Barker says. “Boehner really was more of a traditional Chamber of Commerce-type of Republican whereas McCarthy stylistically and policy-wise for some time now has been a MAGA-friendly flame thrower right in line with them. He certainly was during the Trump years. And so, you know, it just shows their willingness to eat their own.”

Unlike McCarthy, Boehner was already on his way out, planning to resign months later, when he made the decision to step down. Even then, he noted that had he not been planning to leave, he wouldn’t have done so when talk of a motion to vacate began swirling.

“It was never about the vote. There was never any doubt about whether I could survive a vote, but I don’t want my members to have to go through this, and I certainly don’t want the institution to go through this, especially when I knew I was thinking about walking out the door anyway,” he told reporters at the time.

When asked what advice he would give to McCarthy, then his presumed successor, he urged the California Republican to protect the institution. And when questioned by another reporter about whether the next speaker would ultimately face the same fate, he earnestly replied.

。 #펜싱 국가대표 오상욱의 공격을 피한 도경동이 피스트(경기장) 뒤편으로 물러선다. 도경동에게 공격권을 넘겨주기 직전, 허점을 포착한 오상욱은 그대로 밀고 들어가 도경동을 찌르는 데 성공한다. 점수판에 불이 들어오며 오상욱이 1점 획득. 순식간에 벌어진 득점 상황이 끝나자마자 모니터엔 거의 실시간으로 분석 및 조언이 올라왔다. “상대(오상욱)의 선제적 전진 속도에 밀려 반응이 늦었습니다. 상대가 거리를 좁혀올 때 백스텝으로 물러나기보다는 미리 칼끝을 세워 위협을 주거나, 상대의 공격 타이밍에 맞춰 콩트르-아타크(Counter-attack, 역공격) 또는 단단한 패리-리포스트(Parry-Riposte, 방어 후 반격)로 전환하는 전술적 유연성이 필요합니다.” 26일 충북 진천 국가대표선수촌에서 원우영(오른쪽) 펜싱 사브르 국가대표 코치와 최종혁 SKT 스포츠마케팅팀 매니저가 인공지능(AI) 전력 분석 시스템 SKT-FAN을 시연하고 있다. 진천=임성빈 기자 오는 9월 아이치·나고야 아시안게임 개막을 앞두고 SK텔레콤이 26일 처음으로 외부에 공개한 인공지능(AI) 기반 펜싱 전력 분석 시스템 ‘SKT-FAN(Fencing AI Nexus)’이 생성한 보고서 내용이다. 지난 6월에 열린 펜싱 아시아선수권 4강전 영상을 AI에 입력하니, 경기 진행 상황마다 선수가 사용한 기술, 지도자가 조언해야 할 내용을 실시간으로 분석했다. 아시안게임에 나서는 펜싱 국가대표 선수단은 이달 초부터 SKT-FAN을 활용한 과학화 훈련에 들어간 상태다. SKT-FAN은 선수가 센서를 부착하지 않더라도 경기 영상만으로 선수의 관절 포인트를 추적하는 ‘비센서 AI 장면 포착(motion capture)’ 기술을 적용했다. 영상만 있다면 선수의 움직임과 특징을 데이터베이스(DB)화할 수 있다. 저장된 선수별 데이터는 AI 대규모 언어 모델(LLM)에 결합해 전력 분석 리포트로 만든다. 이날 충북 진천 국가대표선수촌에서 만난 원우영 펜싱 사브르 국가대표팀 코치는 같은 장면을 먼저 보고 “오상욱이 첫 공격에 실패하고 도경동은 반격해야 할 때 스텝이 느려지고 공격을 주저했다”며 “과감하게 런지 동작도 하고 빠른 스텝이 필요했는데 실수한 것”이라고 설명했다. 이후 자신의 해설과 비슷한 내용의 AI 보고서를 보자 “제가 없어도 되겠는데요?”라며 웃었다. 펜싱 에페 여자 국가대표팀 선수들과 함재만 코치가 인공지능(AI) 전력 분석 시스템 SKT-FAN을 활용하는 모습. 사진 SK텔레콤 펜싱 에페 대표팀의 송세라는 이날 SKT가 개최한 출정식에서 “분석하고 싶은 상대 이름을 입력하면 바로 보고서가 나오더라”라며 “펜싱엔 빠른 동작이 많다 보니 (육안으론) 잘 알아채지 못하는 부분이 많은데, 상대의 장단점을 세밀하게 파악할 수 있었다”고 말했다. 펜싱 간판스타 오상욱도 “훈련에서 분석 시간을 많이 절약할 수 있어 좋았다”고 했다. AI 분석 도입은 전력 분석에도 보탬이 될 전망이다. 펜싱 대회는 예선과 본선 토너먼트 등 경기 수가 많아 전력분석관이 모든 상대를 분석하기 어렵다. 경기가 끝나면 전체 영상을 하나씩 편집해 자료를 만드는 작업이 필수인데, SKT-FAN으로 한 경기당 1시간 정도 걸리던 업무를 10분 수준으로 줄였다. 시스템을 개발한 최종혁 SKT 스포츠마케팅팀 매니저는 “지금까진 주요 선수 위주로 분석을 했다면, 이제는 유망주까지 더 많은 선수를 분석할 수 있을 것”이라고 강조했다. AI가 1차 분석을 맡아주면 국가대표팀 전력분석관과 지도자는 경기 흐름 전반의 큰 그림을 보고 전략적 판단에 집중할 수 있다는 장점도 있다. SKT는 2028년 로스앤젤레스(LA) 올림픽 때까지 ‘경기 후 복기’ 위주의 현 전력 분석 체계를 ‘대회 중 실시간’ 중심으로 바꿀 수 있도록 기술을 고도화할 계획이다.。

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Published on:15:36:01

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