Last week ended with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating the central bank’s commitment to keeping interest rates high enough to choke off economic activity while bringing inflation back down to its 2% annual target.
“It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Powell said during his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. “We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak – a welcome development – it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
That will be done while also keeping a close eye on incoming economic data, Powell added.
Well, there will be no shortage of new data this week from a consumer confidence reading for August, an update on second quarter gross domestic product, home prices for June and pending home sale for July, along with a bevy of reports on the labor market. And no doubt the stock and bond markets will continue to analyze Powell’s comments and price in any anticipated actions by the Fed.
“We believe the Fed will remain vigilant and data dependent in determining whether rates sustained at current levels for a longer period of time or further rate rises will be needed,” Vanguard senior economist Andrew Patterson said on Friday. “Our baseline is for the latter, another 1-3 hikes are possible over the next several months and into next year before leaving them on hold for some time and only cutting when broader macro conditions weaken, resulting in a shallow recession.”
One piece of the puzzle for Powell will be the health of the labor market. On Tuesday, the Labor Department will release the number of job openings as of the end of July. Analysts are forecasting the number at 9.45 million following June’s 9.6 million.
On Wednesday, private payroll firm ADP will release its monthly employment survey for August with 194,000 jobs expected following July’s supercharged 324,000 number.
But Friday brings the big data highlight of the week with the government’s report on nonfarm payrolls for August. Economists foresee another slip to 168,000 from 187,000.
Sandwiched in between are personal income and spending numbers for July as well as that month’s personal consumption price expenditures index. The inflation measure, while not as commonly known as the consumer price index, is one closely followed by the Fed. One reason that inflation has not come down closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target is that consumers continue to spend, buoyed by wage gains.
“Recession keeps getting pushed back and the staying power of the consumer is a key reason why,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment banking group. “Even as credit becomes harder to access for consumers and pandemic era savings get closer to running out, consumers continue to spend. June marked the largest monthly gain in real consumption since January, which suggests that PCE is set to start the third quarter on solid ground.”
The Fed’s monetary policy committee will meet again on Sept. 20. Although expectations have been for no change in the level of interest rates after July’s quarter-point increase, the odds of a hike at the next scheduled meeting in November are starting to creep up.
CME Group’s futures trading price the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s November meeting at roughly 57%, up from 36% prior to Powell’s Jackson Hole comments.
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