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    低俗怪谈 2026-08-26

    分类: 勇者行动

    低俗怪谈

    DPP’s ‘mobile-network disruption drill’ a political stunt, exposing its role as a troublemaker to cross-Straits peace: expert_我的网站

    禁闭岛

    A |     

    An aerial view of Taipei, Taiwan Province. Photo: VCG
        An aerial view of Taipei, Taiwan Province. Photo: VCG
    At 2:30 pm on Thursday, Taipei resident Michael Chou received a mobile alert, stating that due to "simulated air attack on communications infrastructure," mobile network access would be affected. 
    It turned out to be a mobile internet disruption drill in the northern part of the Taiwan island. As part of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities' "urban resilience drill," the exercise was designed to simulate scenarios of limited communication resources amid major disasters or wartime conditions and verify public‑service backup capabilities, according to Taiwan-based media. 
    Yet in the view of observers, this performative farce not only disrupts residents' daily lives, but also acts as a tool for DPP authorities to hype up crises and amplify cross‑Straits confrontation. It essentially serves their scheme of "seeking independence by force" and narrow‑minded electoral interests.
    As reported by udn.com, the exercise ran from 2:30 pm to 3 pm. When the alert was triggered, local police diverted pedestrians and vehicles to the roadside and urged the public to take shelter indoors. With mobile network speeds throttled, most people at the site lost mobile internet access; many waited out the drill indoors with available Wi‑fi and passed the time by chatting or reading. 
    Chou told the Global Times that 4G and 5G connections were heavily throttled during the drill, though Wi‑Fi and text messaging still worked. Even so, the exercise has created real‑world inconveniences, disrupting takeout delivery, transport‑related ticketing and outdoor emergency rescue services.
    Local legislator Ko Ju-chun from the Chinese Kuomintang party was also among those opposing the drill. He accused the DPP for abusing emergency alerts which only exposed the public to inconvenience. He noted that a genuine network‑resilience drill should focus on "how the public obtain information after networks go down," yet local people still had no clear idea how to respond in such circumstances, per Taiwan-based media. 
    "The so‑called mobile internet disruption drill has very limited practical combat value. And if a military conflict breaks out across the Taiwan Straits, the real‑world scenario would be far more complex than the DPP authorities have envisioned, with much higher costs to bear," Zhang Wensheng, a deputy dean and a professor at the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, told the Global Times.
    "The DPP authorities want the drill to stoke tensions, drumming up public backing for its combative defense policies and higher military budgets. Yet it fears over‑hyping the specter of war would disrupt daily life and erode its popular support, hence this superficial, showpiece drill," said the expert. 
    According to Zhang, the DPP authorities also intend to test Taiwan residents' tolerance threshold. It seeks to observe whether the public will passively acquiesce or push back strongly, so as to assess the mobilization effect of its narratives of "resisting mainland to protect Taiwan" and "rejecting reunification by force."
    Prior to the mobile internet disruption drill in northern parts of Taiwan island, seven counties and cities in the central Taiwan region held the same drill on Monday afternoon.
    Many residents have questioned why the southern region was exempt. DPP officials claimed southern Taiwan had suffered real‑life communication outages in past years and that a drill in the southern part of the island scheduled to take place at 10 am, when the Stock Exchange of Taiwan region is open, could disrupt real-time stock transactions. 
    "This drill is utterly absurd," Chou said, "The DPP probably figures that if anything goes wrong in central and northern Taiwan, it does not matter, local mayors would take the blame."
    Echoing Chou, Zhang said that the DPP authorities do not want drill‑related disruptions to harm their core support base in southern Taiwan, particularly Tainan and Kaohsiung. By contrast, jurisdictions across central and northern Taiwan include many areas ruled by the KMT, which are being used as test subjects for the exercise. 
    By striking a posture of "combat readiness," hyping up cross‑Straits confrontation and ramping up ideological mobilization, the DPP aims to serve its interests in the year‑end local elections, he added.
    "However, voters always pay more attention to livelihoods, the economy and governance performance in local election. If DPP's political manipulation go too far, it will backfire," Zhang said. "The overwhelming majority of Taiwan compatriots refuse to become cannon‑fodder for secessionists."
    The DPP authorities do not hesitate to use the well‑being of Taiwan residents and cross‑Straits peace and stability as bargaining chips for their own political interests, fully laying bare its true colors as a troublemaker, the expert warned. 
    。    
    中秋假期,两则突发消息,牵动医药人的神经。据彭博社当地时间9月10日报道,美国总统拜登准备签署一项行政命令,帮助扩大美国的生物制造业,减少对于外部的依赖。无独有偶,当地时间9月9日,美国公司Snapdragon Chemistry宣布,CXO(医药外包)行业龙头凯莱英之前宣布的收购将不会进行。

    B | 原因是,该收购未能就满足美国财政部下属的外国投资委员会的缓解条款达成一致。CXO作为过去两年整个医药二级市场涨势最好的板块之一,良好的景气度令其成为投资人和创业者前赴后继的一个细分赛道。今年上半年,CXO板块在医药细分板块中表现亮眼,业绩增长势头迅猛,超七成CXO上市公司净利润同比增长,其中博腾股份和凯莱英两家企业的营收利润均翻倍增长。但在二级市场,这些公司表现相对遇冷,部分公司的机构投资者和大股东甚至开始“出逃”。

    C | 最新的两则消息,更让医药人为CXO行业公司捏了一把汗。

    D | 为何投资者对CXO企业亮眼的业绩并不买账?二级市场的表现与业绩背离到底是什么原因?能否破局?创新药市场收缩CXO指的是药品从研发、临床试验、生产到上市过程中的一系列的外包活动。按照产业链条上下游逻辑,主要分为CRO、CDMO/CMO和CSO,分别服务于医药行业的研发外包、生产外包、销售外包三个环节。近年来,全球创新药产业发展迅猛,但新药研发具有高风险、高投入、回报周期长等特点,为了加快新药研发效率,越来越多的药企选择外包,国内CXO行业迎来了高速发展期。

    E | 在二级市场,CXO一度成为资本追捧的对象。2021年7月2日是市场情绪的一个明显转折点。当天,国家药品审评中心发布《以临床价值为导向的抗肿瘤药物临床研发指导原则》征求意见的通知,强调了以患者为中心和基于临床价值的临床试验设计方法,上调了对肿瘤学临床试验的门槛,对创新提出了更高的要求。

    F | 此后,CXO的二级市场表现,开始出现回落。当下,一个新的现实摆在面前,创新药市场开始出现收缩。

    G | 数据显示,从投融资情况来看,2022年前5个月一级市场投融资事件数量和金额均呈下降趋势,投融资事件同比减少45.8%,投融资金额环比减少50.9%。

    H | 二级市场的再融资事件数和金额继去年第三季度之后持续低迷。在药物审批方面,2022年上半年生物药获批数量同比增长16%,增速放缓,化药新药同比增长直接为负(-4%)。有行业人士告诉记者,受资本投资热度降温的影响,很多生物制药公司因管线进度在行业排名靠后,选择直接停掉项目的现象屡见不鲜。

    I | “如果CXO企业的订单多来自国内的生物制药公司,未来业绩肯定会显著下滑。

    J | ”该人士表示。值得关注的是,尽管国内创新药在近几年迅速发展,但CXO企业,尤其是头部企业目前的主要营收仍来源于海外。行业平均的海外营收占比为70%,而凯莱英、博腾股份更是高达85%以上,而海外营收大部分又来自罗氏、辉瑞、默沙东、BMS等少数全球头部药企。美国对生物制造业的最新态度,叠加此前美国对中国生物医药公司研发、投资、贸易政策的收紧,都让行业开始思考相关的应对方法。7月19日,药明康德与药明生物同时宣布将在新加坡建设新基地,这两家“药明系”公司计划在未来十年各自投资约20亿新加坡元用于项目建设。重新做国际化布局,是CXO龙头“药明系”给出的方法之一。行业产能过剩记者采访发现,市场各方对目前CXO行业的担忧,并不仅限于国际市场的影响。

    K | “尤其是跨国药企,之所以找CXO合作,不是因为自己做不出来,而是为了省事省时间,在医药研发行业,时间比研发成本重要太多了。”某国内药企研发负责人对记者解释称,“对于有追求的创新药企而言,选择与CXO合作的目的是又快又好地交付。从统计数字看,用CXO公司临床研发可以节约30%左右的时间,这非常关键。”“有工程师红利以及成熟的产业配套,目前中国发展CXO行业依然是天时地利人和。”上述受访人士认为。但多位受访人士同时提示,产能过剩是目前行业发展最值得关注的问题。一个明显的现象是,不少原料药企集中转型CXO。九洲药业收购杭州TEVA,以快速提升公司CXO业务的承接能力;普洛药业转型CXO和制剂业务,今年二季度末在建工程为10.17亿元,同比增长272.1%;美诺华定增大力发展CXO业务,定增项目将分步投产,预计产能3700多吨;奥翔药业目前进行的CXO业务项目总数有19个,非公开发行募投项目7个车间均已完成厂房建设。更多创新药企正在扩充生物药CXO的产能。

    L | 包括信达生物、复宏汉霖在内的多家创新药企,其关联公司或旗下公司都开始向外承接CXO服务;三生制药、贝达药业开始通过合资等方式向CXO领域延展。机会依然存在那么,CXO产业还值得关注吗?“CXO的成长驱动力,不只来自全球药物研发生产外包产业链的转移,还有新技术新工艺带来的增量。

    M | ”上述受访研发负责人表示,头部CXO不仅是代工企业,也是新技术的引领者、创新企业的孵化者。

    N | 以“药明系”为例,具备一体化平台的CXO企业有能力提前完成底层技术和基础设施布局,因此横向拓展新兴业务也可更快更积极。此外,对于资源的掌控,有助于CXO公司更加稳定地增长。例如掌控国内最丰富的医院临床资源的泰格医药,在临床试验中能兼顾更高效率、更低成本。再如手握稀缺资源——实验猴的昭衍新药,更加重视生物大分子药物评价领域的领先优势。“在目前的大背景下,高增长或稳增长行业是稀缺的。即使未来进入成熟期,CXO也不会停滞,只是从高增长变成稳增长。

    o | ”有市场人士对记者表示,其仍看好CXO行业,尽管不再享受高溢价,“大者恒大、强者恒强,集中度长期提高”的逻辑将依然存在。

    Current article:http://www.qiniaohongfangfoguisenzhai.cyou/k9vr/20260826/706533.ppt

    Published on:11:04:18


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