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NW China’s Qinghai opens first direct rail route to Laos, driving urea exports deep into ASEAN_我的网站

王子变青蛙

A | 　　美国财政部长贝森特上周宣布将通过扩大长债回购来压低美国融资成本，这一突如其来的计划虽然引发了关于其最终成效的激烈辩论，但关键的市场指标与机构持仓数据却似乎表明，该举措已开始初步显现成效。

A bullet train runs along the China-Laos Railway. File photo: VCG
Northwest China's Qinghai Province ran its first freight train directly to Laos on Tuesday, hauling 1,150 tons of urea produced by Qinghai Yuntianhua International Fertilizer Co out of the Shuangzhai logistics center in Xining and onto the China-Laos Railway for Vientiane. The shipment marks the first time the plateau province has exported its own urea on its own account, and a breakthrough in its drive to open an international logistics corridor into ASEAN, Xinhua News Agency reported.
The service uses a container through-transport model that effectively compresses logistics costs and improves transport efficiency, providing solid support for Qinghai's salt lake chemical products as they expand into ASEAN markets, said the report.
Since the start of this year, the Department of Commerce of Qinghai Province has worked with China Railway Qinghai-Xizang Group Co to improve the regular operating mechanism for international freight services and coordinate transport capacity. In the first half of this year, the province ran a cumulative 97 international freight trains, and has successively opened routes from Xining to Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and to Balkan in Turkmenistan. Tuesday's departure was the third new international freight route Qinghai has launched this year, according to the report.
The report said that Qinghai will build on its consolidated strengths in traditional export products while actively pushing used vehicles, copper rods and other new export growth points to deliver results, continuing to optimize its export mix, keeping the outbound channel for Qinghai-made goods clear, and advancing high-quality development of the province's open economy.
Sitting at the junction of China's southwest and northwest transport networks, Qinghai is a key node on the Eurasian Land Bridge. Since it ran its first China-Europe freight train in 2016, the province has worked to put international freight services on a regular operating footing and has taken up multimodal arrangements including rail-sea and road-rail transport to support foreign trade, according to Qinghai Daily.
On May 27, the first container train from Xining to Ho Chi Minh City departed the Shuangzhai logistics center, carrying close to 1,000 tons of PVC. It ran roughly 3,200 kilometers entirely by rail, exited China through the Pingxiang port in South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region - a sign, the provincial authorities said, that Qinghai's logistics corridor into Southeast Asia was maturing into something stable, and of an efficient rail channel for the province's competitive products to reach ASEAN markets, said the Qinghai Daily report.
Global Times
。　　数据显示，自贝森特上周宣布该计划以来，美国国债的表现已超越同期限利率互换，30年期的两者利差缩窄至了今年2月以来的最低水平。

B | 基准美债收益率在美国财政部宣布将长期债券回购规模“至少翻倍”后，经历了最初的剧烈波动，随后呈现震荡走低态势。　　花旗集团美国利率策略主管Jason Williams表示，“这种全新的财政部‘看跌期权’为市场提供了潜在的政策背书，从而改善了持有长端国债的风控不对称性。

C | 贝森特最近的一系列举措——包括增加回购规模以及干预日元汇率，无不表明他正准备不惜一切代价来实现其既定目标。”　　周一，美国媒体报道称，美国财政部可能会动用其存放在美联储的现金——即财政部一般账户(TGA)——来为这笔扩大的长期国债购买计划提供资金支持。

D | 这一消息进一步提振了市场情绪，而国际原油价格的回落，也同步为债市提供了上涨动力。

E | 　　尽管长期融资成本仍徘徊在多年高位，且推动全球收益率上行的诸多结构性因素依然未变，但市场近期走势表明，若非贝森特的干预，收益率本会更高。　　即便这项扩大的回购计划长期效果仍存疑虑——例如贝森特“恩师”、亿万富翁投资者德鲁肯米勒等权威人士便公开批评贝森特的干预是一个错误——但众多交易员已清晰意识到市场上出现了一位“强力买家”，因而普遍不愿贸然站在“贝森特看跌期权”的对立面。　　期权市场也呈现出类似的主题——过去一周市场呈现出明显的看涨倾向，这表现为追踪长期美债的国债期货看涨期权持仓量相较于看跌期权急剧攀升。相比之下，较短期限美债期货的波动率偏度(skews)则继续维持在过去几个月普遍处于的中性水平附近。　　“当前的‘操作’集中在长端，而市场目前的担忧——如果可以这么说的话——是长债收益率可能会因干预而暴跌，”R.J. OBrien & Associates的衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara分析道。　　利率互换是一种常见的衍生品合约，交易双方约定交换未来的利息现金流，通常是以浮动利率交换固定利率。企业和机构投资者常利用它来规避利率风险，例如将其支付端与未来的负债进行匹配。在美国，这类合约通常与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩，其中30年期互换利率精准反映了市场对未来三十年平均利率水平的预期——这使其成为一种在金融属性上与30年期美国国债高度对标的产品。　　近年来，随着全球政府债券供给量急剧膨胀，美债收益率与互换利率之间的分化急剧扩大。

F | 这种利差走势吸引了大量对冲基金入场做空或做多互换利差。美联储研究人员估算，对冲基金在这类策略上的持仓规模已从2022年的不足500亿美元飙升至去年的创纪录水平——3050亿美元。　　尽管目前30年期美国国债收益率仍远高于互换利率，但贝森特的表态已带来了一定程度的边际修复。10年期互换利差同步迎来收窄，两者间距缩窄了3个基点，降至约38个基点。