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Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority_我的网站

一 |     WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。    1938年，一名日本随军记者在中国战场的废墟里，捡到一封没寄出的家书。写信的是一位中国母亲，信里只有一句朴素的期盼：仗打完了，早点回家。这位记者读完，在自己的文章里大笑，说难怪中国兵这么弱，母亲居然写这种软弱的话。这不是段子，是当时日本媒体留下的真实态度。

二 | 而与此同时，太平洋的另一端，日本本土的母亲们正在教自己的儿子，死了没关系，那是为国效力。    七年后，1945年8月，两朵蘑菇云先后升起在广岛和长崎的上空。数十万普通日本人，包括老人、妇女、学生，瞬间死去。这场悲剧至今仍被反复讲述，但真正值得追问的问题从来不是＂该不该炸＂，而是那些死去的普通人，到底在战争机器里扮演了什么角色。如果你只把他们当成军国主义的＂人质＂，那你可能忽略了更残酷的另一面。        要理解这一点，得先回到十几年前，回到一间日本小学的教室里。    1933年，日本文部省推出了新版国语教材《樱花读本》。翻开第一页，前一句还是＂樱花开了，樱花开了＂，紧接着的下一句，就是＂前进，前进，军队向前进＂。

三 | 一本给小学生识字用的课本，从第一页就把战争和花开写在了一起。孩子还不识愁滋味，却已经在被灌输一种理念：为天皇而死，是一种荣耀。    中学阶段更进一步。修身课的必读教材《国体本义》告诉学生，日本这个国家，在文化、精神、国体上都天生优于欧美列强，作为臣民，唯一的本分就是绝对服从天皇。

四 | 这不是选修课，是必修的思想底色。

五 | 一个孩子从小学读到中学，接受的从来不是＂如何独立思考＂，而是＂如何毫无保留地服从＂。        问题是，光有教材还不够，真正把学生一步步推向战场的，是他们最信任的人——老师。    1938年，日本推行＂满蒙开拓青少年义勇军＂计划，说白了就是把未成年人送去满洲当开拓兵。据公开资料显示，当时因为报名人数不够，各地学校被强行摊派名额，老师们要负责游说家长。有亲历者后来回忆，往往是老师上门劝说几次，父母就把家里十五岁的孩子交了出去，送进军队或者送到满洲。这些老师不是被迫执行命令的小人物，他们中不少人主动、卖力地把学生的性命，变成向上级交差的成绩单。这还不是最让人无法接受的地方——更麻烦的是，这套体系从上到下，几乎没有人觉得有问题。    如果只看学校和课堂，很容易以为这只是国家机器单方面的压迫，普通人是被动的齿轮。事情并没有这么简单。真正让人意外的是，这场狂热的另一半推手，是本该最柔软、最本能反对战争的一群人——日本的母亲和妻子们。        1932年，一位叫井上千代子的日本女子，因为担心丈夫出征后仍会牵挂家里，写下一封所谓的＂鼓舞信＂后自杀。这件事在当时被塑造成＂义举＂典范，大阪的家庭主妇安田静深受感召，同年3月牵头成立了＂国防妇人会＂。短短几年间，这个组织迅速扩张，后来发展为规模庞大的全国性妇女团体，据日本方面的资料，到二战末期成员数以百万计。它的核心诉求只有一条：女人要以大局为重，无论丈夫、儿子还是兄弟，都要毫无负担地去死。    这不是个别女性的极端选择，而是被制度化、组织化、荣誉化的社会运动。

六 | 知识女性本该是这场狂热里的清醒者，现实却恰恰相反。一些女权活动家、女性评论家在公开文章里呼吁女性多生育，把生孩子直接和民族昌盛绑在一起，甚至提出女性应该主动奉献自己的孩子、劳力和生命。一批女性作家也在作品里反复歌颂那些＂含泪送儿子上战场＂的母亲，把这种痛苦包装成伟大。

七 | 日本当局很快接住了这股风向，推出表彰政策，家里孩子生得多、送得多的家庭，会被树立成全国学习的榜样。        这就形成了一个诡异的闭环：国家需要炮灰，教育系统负责培养服从的孩子，妇女团体负责说服家庭放手，媒体和知识分子负责把牺牲包装成荣耀。每一个环节都有具体的人在推动，每一个人似乎都只是＂完成自己的那一份工作＂，可拼在一起，就是一整套把普通人变成战争燃料的机器。回到开头那位记者的态度，就不难理解他为什么会嘲笑中国母亲的＂软弱＂了——在他所处的社会里，母亲盼儿子活着回家，已经变成了一种需要被纠正的思想问题。    当然，这里必须多问一句：这些普通人，真的有别的选择吗？    在高度集权、信息封闭、举国宣传的体制下，个体的独立判断空间被压缩到极小。一个从小学到中学都被灌输绝对服从的人，很难在成年后突然拥有质疑的能力。这确实是制度性的悲剧，值得历史学者去分析，也值得后人警醒。但这只能解释＂为什么他们会这样＂，不能反过来变成＂所以他们是无辜的＂这个结论。

八 | 因为在同一个体制下，依然有沉默的、抵触的、不配合的人存在，只是他们的声音，没能形成社会主流。绝大多数人选择了顺从、鼓励，甚至主动加码——这也是事实的一部分，不能被＂体制受害者＂这个身份完全洗白。    更值得注意的是，这套动员体系不只停留在思想层面，它落到了实际行动上。战争后期，大批妇女和学生被组织进兵工厂，昼夜生产军火，支撑着日本继续在亚洲各地扩张。她们生产的每一颗子弹、每一件武器，最终都可能落在别国普通人的身上。这不是被动的＂裹挟＂，而是实实在在参与了战争机器的运转。当一个社会里，妇女为战争生产武器、母亲以送儿子上战场为荣、教师主动把学生推向前线，这个社会已经很难用＂无辜＂来简单概括。        原子弹带来的伤亡确实惨烈，这一点无需回避，战争本身就是文明的失败。但历史评价从来不是单向的道德审判题，它需要放进具体的社会结构里去看。＂原子弹下无冤魂＂这句判断之所以流传，不是因为有人想为战争暴力辩护，而是因为很多人回头去看那段历史时，发现所谓的＂平民＂，其实是这场侵略战争链条上不可分割的一环。他们既是体制的产物，也是体制的参与者和维护者。    战后，日本社会经历了漫长的转型，官方叙事逐渐把战争描述成一场＂举国被拖入的悲剧＂，把普通民众塑造成纯粹的受害者。

九 | 这种叙事有它的政治需要，也有一定的历史真实成分，但如果完全接受这套说法，就会遗漏掉那些主动参与、主动鼓动、主动配合的具体的人和具体的行为。胜利者书写历史，失败者重塑记忆，普通读者很容易在这两种叙事的夹缝里，误判整段历史的性质。    这也是为什么，近些年日本国内一些政治人物在历史问题上反复试探底线的时候，总会引发周边国家高度警惕。

十 | 历史从未真正翻篇，因为对那段历史的定性问题，从来没有得到彻底、诚实的清算。一个社会如果不能真正面对自己曾经的疯狂，就很难保证类似的疯狂不会以新的形式重新出现。    回过头看那封被记者嘲笑的中国家书，那位母亲想要的，其实是整个人类文明最朴素的共识：活着，比死亡更值得追求。而当一个社会把这种朴素的共识当作软弱去嘲笑，把死亡包装成荣耀去追捧，它离灾难降临，其实已经不远了。

十一 | 这大概才是这段历史留给后人最沉重的提醒。    返回，查看更多。

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Published on:10:01:03